Targeting Luna —
“Very difficult times are ahead for our space program.”
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Rockets for the Moon: developmental new vehicles (payload capacity to LEO in metric tons), including various Angara rockets, the Soyuz 5 booster, and Super Thrust Block 1 and Super Thrust Block 2.
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More details about the progression of rockets:
2022 – Soyuz 5, 17 metric tons to LEO;
2028 – Super Thrust Block 1, 27 metric tons to Lunar polar orbit and 103 tons to LEO;
After 2030 – Super Thrust Block 2, greater than 27 tons to Lunar polar orbit and 140-180 tonnes to LEO.
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This slide shows the proposed super-heavy class booster that will launch a lunar lander with ascent vehicle as well as an orbital module. Also shown: an inflatable lunar-base module.
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First steps to the Moon. 2021, development of unmanned lunar lander Luna-Globe; 2022, flight test of Federation in low-Earth orbit; 2023, Federation flight to ISS.
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Next steps. 2024, Federation crew flight to ISS; 2024, lunar research from lunar orbit; 2025, landing site reconnaissance lander; 2026-28, uncrewed flight testing of Federation in deep space; 2027, return of lunar soil to Earth using Luna-Grunt probe.
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Final steps to the Moon: 2029 crew flights to Lunar orbit; 2029 flight testing of Lunar lander and Autonomous Lunar rover and Lunar Base Module (inflatable); 2030 Crewed Moon landing.
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A proposal for a New National Space Center located near Moscow city center in the Fili region, on the grounds of the Khrunichev Center rocket factory where Proton was built.Yellow-lined areas are the current rocket factory. Light blue lines show location of new space center to be built by the end of 2022. Orange lines show the educational center, a branch of Moscow State University.
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General info on Russia’s space industry: 95 organizations; 75 companies; 14 integrated structures for development and design of new components; 304.4 Billion rubles annual revenue [$4.72 billion US]; 36.4% of funding from foreign and domestic marketplace; 190,800 employees total; the average employee age is 45.
Last Thursday, the leader of Russia’s state space corporation, Dmitry Rogozin, gave a wide-ranging talk at Moscow University. The speech sought to describe activities happening now at Roscosmos and what may happen in the future, including a potential lunar landing.
Rogozin addressed his comments largely to students at the university, and he sought to paint a picture of a vibrant national space enterprise. This is presumably to boost the desirability of a career in space, as young people have been pursuing aerospace careers in smaller numbers. Reports of low salaries, low morale, and a lack of funding to even remove trash from Roscosmos facilities has not helped this trend.
The Russian plan
Via Robinson Mitchell, Ars obtained a copy of the slide deck Rogozin used for his speech and a translation of its contents (key slides are shown above). Of particular interest is the speech’s focus on an independent lunar landing featuring cosmonauts by 2030. Taken at face value—which probably is not wise, given the big question of how Russia would fund such an enterprise—a Russian attempt to land humans on the Moon a decade from now would set up an extraordinary race among that country, NASA’s Artemis Program, and China’s lunar ambitions.
Under the plan outlined by Rogozin, the country will initially develop a new “Super Heavy” booster with a capacity of 103 metric tons to low Earth orbit and 27 metric tons to Lunar polar orbit. This is roughly equivalent to an upgraded version of NASA’s Space Launch System, known as Block 1B.
The plan includes the development of the “Federation” spacecraft by 2022, with its first flight to the International Space Station by 2023. Deep-space flights of this spacecraft would follow in the mid-2020s, along with a return of lunar soil to Earth using the Luna-Grunt probe in 2027.
Finally, in 2029, crew flights to lunar orbit would begin, along with flight testing of a lunar lander and an inflatable lunar base module. The crew landing would take place in 2030, although Rogozin said he would like to move those dates earlier if possible.
In terms of strategy, Rogozin said he did not believe there is much potential for industrial utilization of the Moon, a theme that has been a key component of US and commercial plans to send humans back to the Moon. Rather, one strategic reason Rogozin cited was the role of a lunar station in defense against comets and asteroids. (It is not clear how that would work).
Doubting Rogozin
The speech comes amid questions about the future of Rogozin. Rumors have been swirling about whether he will soon be removed from the job. A respected Russian aerospace analyst, Vadim Lukashevich, shared some thoughts about the speech on his Facebook account.
Dmitry Rogozin, director of the Roscosmos State Corporation, gives an open lecture titled “Transformation of Roscosmos” at Moscow State University on May 23.
Vladimir GerdoTASS via Getty Images
“Yesterday’s speech by Dmitry Rogozin at Moscow State University, judging from several inside sources, overflowed the cup of patience,” Lukashevich wrote. “Now everyone is talking about his impending resignation, including his subordinates (these last predominately in curses). Very difficult times are ahead for our space program.”
These difficulties may include a troubling trend in Russian rocket failures, an uncertain future with its long-standing NASA partnership, funding issues, and more. For this reason, it is difficult to envision Russia launching an ambitious program to land on the Moon, but as ever, the country’s progress (or lack of) will be worth tracking.
Listing image by Roscosmos