Prime Minister Narendrea Modi waves at supporters during a road show in Varanasi.Image copyright
Reuters

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Many see the election as a referendum on Mr Modi who won a landslide in 2014

Indians will finally find out on Thursday who won the general election after a long and bitter campaign.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) stormed to power in 2014, campaigned hard to retain his commanding majority.

He was up against the resurgent main opposition Congress party and powerful regional rivals across the country.

Exit polls have predicted a win for Mr Modi, but analysts warn they have often been wrong in the past.

The last of seven rounds of voting over six weeks ended on Sunday and the counting of the stored ballots begins at 08:00 local time (02.30GMT.)

This election is seen as a referendum on Mr Modi, a polarising figure adored by many but also blamed for increasing divisions in India.

A party or coalition needs at last 272 seats to secure a majority in the 543-member lower house of parliament, or Lok Sabha.

In 2014, the BJP captured 282 seats – the biggest victory by any party in 30 years. The Congress, which won just 44, suffered its worst defeat.

This year, there were 900 million voters eligible to take part, making it the largest election the world had ever seen.

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The fate of more than 8,000 candidates and some 670 political parties hangs on the ballot.

Results will be released in phases by the Election Commission – a picture of who is winning could emerge within hours, or it could take longer depending on how close the race is.

Final results are not expected until late on Thursday local time, or early Friday. Extra checks matching printed ballots against electronic voting machine results could delay the process.

India votes 2019

Who is likely to win?

Mr Modi, with his tough image, remains the BJP’s main vote-getter. The party and its allies could retain their majority, even if they lose some seats. Critics say promises of stellar economic growth and jobs have not been met, and India has become more polarised along religious lines under his leadership.

His main rival is Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, who is trying to win over an India weary of his family’s dynastic grip on politics. The party’s chances of winning a majority appear slim. It also failed to stitch up a pre-vote alliance in crucial states in the east and the south – a sign of its waning influence, analysts say.

If neither of the two main parties can win an outright majority, powerful regional parties could play the role of kingmakers in a hung parliament.

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Rahul Gandhi and his sister Priyanka must improve on a dismal Congress performance last time

A string of exit polls all suggested this outcome was unlikely and predicted a BJP win, but the forecasts were rejected by the opposition.

It’s often said that whoever wins Uttar Pradesh, wins the Indian election. The huge northern state sends 80 MPs – more than any other – to parliament. In 2014 the BJP won 71 seats there. This time, a repeat performance seems far from certain.

In a surprising move, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party (SP) – bitter rivals – banded together to form a so-called “grand alliance” against Mr Modi. Together, they could chip away at the BJP’s impressive 2014 seat tally.

So the ruling party is hoping to make up for any losses with gains in states such as West Bengal, where it holds just two of the 42 parliamentary seats. Here, the BJP is up against Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee – a contest that produced some of the election’s fiercest exchanges.

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West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has emerged as one of Mr Modi’s fieriest opponents

Four of India’s five southern states – Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Kerala – have long eluded the BJP. Of the 91 seats in these states, the BJP holds just four. In this part of the country, the party contests few seats, relying instead on alliances with regional heavyweights.

How do you count hundreds of millions of votes?

Electronic voting machines or EVMs have been used in three Indian general elections before this one. They save money and time and results come within hours, rather than the nearly two full days it took when ballots were tallied manually.

Each of India’s 1.7m EVMs record up to 2,000 votes (the number of registered voters at any given polling booth does not exceed 1,500) and 64 candidates. After being unsealed they are individually inspected by counting staff and agents, overseen by a returning officer.

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When he or she is satisfied that a voting machine has not been tampered with they press a button marked “result”. The officer assesses the total number of votes given to each candidate before signing the results sheet and sharing it with the Election Commission.

The EVMs are counted in batches, and results released in phases. The media report the results in real time as they emerge. Final results on the Election Commission website come later.

All the machines now have printers producing voter-verifiable paper audit trails to ensure transparency.

Authorities will tally the paper trail slips – which are kept in separate sealed boxes – and compare them with the electronic result provided by the machine in at least 5% of polling booths. Election officials say this process could delay final results by a couple of hours.

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What are the key issues?

The economy is perhaps the biggest issue, with farming in crisis, unemployment on the rise and fears growing that India is heading for a recession.

A crop glut and declining commodity prices have led to stagnant farm incomes, leaving many farmers saddled with debt.

Under Mr Modi, the world’s sixth-largest economy has lost some of its momentum. Growth hovers around 7% and a leaked government report this year said the unemployment rate is the highest it has been since the 1970s.

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India has seen huge protests by farmers in recent years

Many also see this election as a battle for India’s identity and the protection of minorities. A strident – and at times violent – Hindu nationalism has become mainstream in the past five years, with increased attacks against minorities, including the lynchings of dozens of Muslims accused of smuggling cows.

And national security is in the spotlight after a suicide attack by a Pakistan-based militant group killed at least 40 paramilitary police in Indian-administered Kashmir in February. India then launched unprecedented air strikes in Pakistan, prompting it to respond in kind and bringing the two countries to the brink of war.

What Indian voters are being promised

Jobs



– Fill 400,000 vacancies in various state organisations, the judiciary and parliament by 31 March 2020
– Angel taxes imposed on start-ups to be withdrawn immediately
– Application fees for government examinations and government posts to be abolished.



– Increase public and private investment in infrastructure that will also lead to creation of a large number of jobs
– Ensure 10% quota for economically weak sections of society in government jobs and higher education institutes

Farmers



– Not allow criminal proceedings to be instituted against any farmer unable to repay debt
– Present a separate “farmers budget” to ensure priority is given to agricultural issues
– Redesign the current government’s crop insurance scheme which has not been beneficial to farmers



– Double farmers’ income by 2022
– A scheme to ensure financial support to small and medium farmers will be expanded to cover all farmers
– Introduce a pension scheme for small farmers and traders

Income Support



– Guarantee an income for 50 million of India’s poorest families
– A government programme that guarantees 100 days of paid work to every rural household will be increased to 150 days



– Bring down the percentage of families living below the poverty line to a single digit in the next five years
– Ensure a permanent house for every family.
– Give gas cylinder connections to all poor rural households

Economy and Taxes



– Reform the Goods and Services Tax introduced by the government
– Achieve a fiscal deficit target of 3% of GDP by 2020-21
– Enact the Direct Taxes Code within one year of government
– Work with the central bank to simplify the procedures banks use to verify customers



– Simplify the Goods and Services Tax in consultation with all stakeholders
– Make capital investment of Rs.100 lakh crore in the infrastructure sector
– Launch a new scheme to provide collateral-free credit up to five million rupees for entrepreneurs.
– Promote and encourage start-ups through creation of a ‘Seed Start-up Fund’

Education



– Pass a law to provide for quotas to disprivileged people in private higher education institutions
– Primary and secondary education in public schools to be compulsory and free
– Double the allocation for education to 6% of GDP
– Introduce vocational training as a compulsory component of the syllabus



– Increase the number of admissions in central law, engineering, science and management institutions by at least 50%.
– Set up a medical college in every district
– Establish teacher training institutes

Women



– Pass the Constitution (Amendment) Bill to provide for reservation of 33 per cent of seats in the Lok Sabha and State Legislative Assemblies in the first session of the 17th Lok Sabha and in the Rajya Sabha.
– Every Special Economic Zone shall have working women’s hostels and safe transport facilities to increase the participation of women in the labour force.
– Sufficient night shelters will be built for migrant women workers. Adequate number of safe and hygienic public toilets for women will be provided in towns and cities. Sanitary napkin vending machines will be installed in public spaces,schools and colleges.
– Review the Sexual Harassment of Women at Workplaces Act, 2013 and extend the Act to all workplaces.
– Launch a programme to appoint an Adhikar Maitri in every Panchayat to serve as a paralegal to educate women on, and assist them in, their legal rights.



– Ensure justice for Muslim women by enacting a law against triple talaq (instant divorce)
– Formulate a roadmap to increase female workforce participation.
– Number of childcare facilities to be increased three fold by 2022.
– Sanitary pads to be provided to all women and girls for just one rupee ($0.014)
– Bring 33% reservation in parliament and state assemblies for women

Health



-Guarantee every citizen the right to healthcare services
– Double the total government expenditure on healthcare to 3% of GDP by 2023-24
– Ensure that mental healthcare professionals are appointed at all public district hospitals and that mental healthcare services are made freely available
– Trauma and Emergency Centres to be established on all national and state highways



– Establish 150,000 new health and wellness centres
– Increase the doctor-population ratio to 1:1,400
– Improve facilities at existing Health and Wellness Centres by 2022

Miscellaneous



– Make ‘defamation’ a civil instead of a criminal offence
– Remove the charge of sedition from the Indian penal code
– Strengthen the press council to protect the freedom of journalists, uphold editorial independence and guard against government interference
– Pass a law to curb monopolies in the media, cross-ownership of different segments of the media and control of the media by other business organisations
– Reduce the presence of the Army and paramilitary forces in the Kashmir Valley, and entrust more responsibility to the state police to maintain law and order
– Pass a new law to prevent and punish mob action and hate crime
– Direct that gender sensitivity training, especially for the rights of the LGBTQIA+ community, be made mandatory in all government departments and organisations including the Armed Forces and the Police Forces



– Ensure electricity for every household in the country
– Continue a policy of ‘Zero Tolerance’ against terrorism and extremism
– Enact the Citizenship Amendment Bill to protect religious minorities from neighbouring countries who are escaping persecution
– Annul Article 35A of the Constitution which gives Kashmir special status
– Ensure piped water to every household by 2024
– Construct an additional 60,000 km of national highways in the next five years
– Explore all possibilities within the framework of the Constitution to facilitate the construction of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya

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